CPM Pricing in a Post-Last Click World

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“How much should one bid on a specific impression?” is a question I have been trying to answer for years and have shared my thoughts on this blog. Today, we are approaching CPM bid price as lazy financiers approach asset valuation; assume other similar transactions were done rationally and base our pricing on their results. Well what if everyone else had made the same assumption? Are we sure the market value of an impression is equal to its intrinsic value?

CPM Pricing in the Last Click World

In the last click world, life was relatively simple. As a merchant, I know my margins and I can tell you how much % of revenue I am willing to part with for a sale. Given that information, I can back into a CPM price I am willing to pay, using best guesses for click through rate (CTR), conversion rate (CVR), average order value (AOV), and adjusting for risk (or how confident you are in your guesses). More details in this post.  To summarize in one formula, the concept looks like this:

CPM=ƒ(μCTR*μCVR*μAOV*% Sales, σCTR, σCVR, σAOV)

We have always used eCPM as the common denominator to compare performances of different pricing models, which ignored two important things; the quality of the impressions, and the value of risk transfer. The formula takes these two key points into account. Better quality of impression can be defined as an impression with a higher mean CTR and/or CVR and/or AOV, and you should be willing to pay more. Higher risk for the advertiser can be defined as a higher standard deviation for CTR and/or CVR and/or AOV and you should be willing to pay less.

Then Came Attribution

The last click model is linear but consumer journey is not. You can’t look at each marketing channel & campaigns in a vacuum, since that is not how people experience your brand and end up becoming a customer. The concept of attribution makes total sense. The issue is, in reality it is impossible to attribute a sale “accurately”. Not even the consumer will be able to tell you why she ended up buying that item on that day.

For all we know, the customer bought the item because she had a bad day, had one too many glasses of wine, and saw a handbag she liked displayed in the storefront on the way home. So we should attribute 30% of the sale to her ex-boyfriend, 40% to the bar (20% to bartender, 20% to the guy buying her drinks), 20% to the store, and of course 10% to Google because she searched for the product name to get to the purchase page.

By trying to illustrate why accurate attribution is impossible, I also just illustrated why last click is pretty much always wrong. In the above case, all these things contributed to the sale but Google just happened to be conveniently located as the last click hub of anyone knowing what she wants to buy. Where is the value in that as a marketing channel? Why would Google deserve 100% of the credit? (hint: it shouldn’t)

So we know last click is (almost) always wrong and attribution is never accurate. That’s why a whole slew of attribution companies are out there touting their attribution logic to be the most accurate. “Black box” guys hire PhD’s and crunch numbers based on consumer touch points and conversions and other data points (“Can’t explain exactly why it’s accurate but trust me, I’m a doctor”) and some are more open, incorporating the advertisers requests (“Yea, we have no idea either. Let’s prove your boss was right all along”).

No matter how imperfect attribution is, it is reality for digital marketing today because never accurate sure beats always wrong. So what does attribution mean to our little formula? Obviously, the formula needs to be adjusted but just how?

Influence is the New Click

When we review the formula, we notice that two things happen outside of the advertiser’s domain; the impression and the click. CVR and AOV happen on the advertiser side and the advertiser obviously has control over the % of Sales to be paid. In the post last click world, what we care about is “influence”. If accurate attribution was available, we would be measuring how much of the influence did this particular ad unit have to this consumer’s purchase. Clicks used to be the go to proxy for influence because it required user action and intent. But what about video ads? Interactive ads that don’t need you to click? Audio ads? A really well made static display ad that captivates you? There are so many things that can happen between an impression and a click. Click as a measurement of influence is flawed and by association, CTR is also flawed. What matters is the conversion rate between who the ad campaign reached and who visited the advertiser site. This is measuring unique users, so a user coming back to the site via retargeted ad would count as one visitor. Let’s call this conversion rate RUR for Reach to Unique Ratio.

The reason why we should look at RUR from a unique user perspective is because the consumer journey does not end when the user visits the site. It ends when the user converts or the marketer gives up. So when a user visits a product page, leaves to do additional research, the retargeting ad that brought her back should not take whole credit of the sale. The brand touch points that brought her to the site in the first place should also be credited. There’s another variable that we have to consider. How many touch points it takes for the user to become a unique visitor to the site (TP as in touch point, not toilet paper).

The New Formula

Given all these thoughts, I can finally put together the theoretical CPM pricing formula taking attribution into consideration.

CPM=ƒ(μRUR/μ#TP *μCVR*μAOV*% Sales,
σRUR, σ#TP, σCVR, σAOV)

Let me try to explain this verbally. The CPM you should be willing to bid on a given impression has to do with the average % of users you reach who turn out to be a unique visitor to your site, how many touch points it takes for you to get this user to come visit your site, and once visited, what the conversion rate, AOV are, and of course, how much of the revenue you are willing to give up. Oh, and don’t forget to adjust for risk.

You may have noticed the definition of CVR actually changed slightly in this formula because we are allowing for the eventual return of this user outside of the current session, so CVR is actually “eventual CVR”.

Ah, Crap

I hope you didn’t notice I took a major short cut. Because I just did and I want to go to bed but promised myself I would finish this post today. Attribution. Yes it is still haunting me. The assumption I made in the formula is that every impression is equal and I can use the average number of touch points to get to the CPM price. This means, if we average 4 touch points before a user visits the site or we give up, I am attributing 25% of the credit to each of the touch points.  If the whole attribution movement taught us anything, it taught us that each touch point is unique in how influential it will be. Let’s call that variable % Infl. By definition, the % infl will add up to 100% when the user visits the site or the marketer gives up.

CPM TP1→N =ƒ(μRUR * %Infl TP1→N *μCVR*μAOV*% Sales,
σRUR, σ%Infl, σCVR, σAOV)
where sum (% Infl TP1→N) = 100%

I don’t even know the mathematically correct way to denote this but the spirit is there. I think I actually used an Excel formula near the end, but whatever, I had 3 hours of sleep last night. When you are bidding on an impression, you have to know where in the consumer journey this person is and what state of mind she is in, and what touch points she has had with your brand. Given all that and with the magic of big data, and your future intent to buy this consumer’s impression, you buying this next impression will have a certain effect on this person’s psyche and hopefully purchase behavior in the future. When the % Infl adds up to 100%, theoretically the user has RUR% chance of visiting the site, CVR% chance of becoming a customer, and spending $AOV.

In Conclusion, So Many Freaking Caveats

Well at least I got to some kind of formula, no matter how weird it looks. There are a boat load of caveats and three come to mind immediately.

First, as I mentioned above, there are so much predictive algorithm that needs to happen to get to the RUR and % Infl variables. But this is the nature of being able to bid on the most granular level possible to mankind, the impression. Now most bidding currently happens on the segment level and my thought process assumes personal level, so maybe this is the kind of thing we need to think about in the future.

Another caveat, not sure if you caught this, is the question of incrementality. I went through all this trouble to calculate how much this impression is worth, but in reality, the advertiser already has some organic traffic that converts at a certain rate. Shouldn’t the advertiser spend only on the difference of the effect? There is a lot of argument that can be made for both sides but maybe some kind of discount needs to happen. Also remember way earlier in this post I mentioned that the quality of the impression not only increases CTR but potentially also CVR and AOV.

One final caveat. Won’t advertisers care about the life time value of the customer instead of the one sale? Yes, most certainly and I think the formula can be adjusted to take that into consideration. At some point in the near future, I’ll explore this idea.

Man, the future of digital marketing is full of formulas and quantitative intellectual reasoning. There has got to be someone better at this than me. I failed calculus 18 years ago (I was a terrible student back then)!

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Turning Excess Supply into a Business

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It’s been a while since I last wrote a post. Meanwhile, my daughter who was a week old when I wrote my first post and was a tiny creature will be turning one tomorrow and has become a havoc wreaking human being.

Today I wanted to talk about finding business opportunities. No, I’ve never started a company and am yet to make my millions, but there are certain ways to look at the world to find your chance. Entrepreneurs don’t necessary start their businesses through these perspectives but not everyone is über passionate about that one thing in life either. I believe passion is necessary for an entrepreneur to succeed, but that passion does not have to be the subject of your business. There are successful people who own waste management companies, who may not be passionate about garbage.

Anyways, Excess Supply is today’s theme. If you look at some successful companies, they leverage existing assets that are underutilized.

For example:

  • Say I own a vacation home in Hawaii I use 3 months a year (25% utilization), there is Homeaway or Airbnb.
  • If I’m traveling, my car will be sitting in an airport parking lot for the next week, costing me money. Well there is FlightCar.
  • Speaking of cars, why own a car when you won’t drive it more than 2 hours a day? Zipcar.
  • What if I’m a bike messenger and I’m not always busy during the day? Postmates.
  • I run a website with a bunch of remnant inventory. That’s where DSP/SSP/RTB comes in.
  • You get the point.

    The good thing about excess supply is that it’s sunk cost for the owner. If I’ve already bought a car and it’s going to sit at the airport parking lot, I might as well rent it because making a couple of extra bucks is better than paying for a week parking. And “might as well” comes cheap. Why are listings on Airbnb cheaper than hotel rooms despite being bigger with wifi and a fully functioning kitchen? Because the renter is visiting friends in Boston for a week but she still owes the full month rent, so she might as well rent it for cheap than not rent it at all. The renter is better off, the visitor is better off saving money on hotels, and there is still money left for Airbnb to be in business.

    Every asset not utilized is an opportunity. Every parked car is underutilized. Every empty space (office buildings are completely empty at night and a lot of homes are empty during the day…). Restaurant kitchens in closed hours (maybe you can rent them to run your business from 2am?). Food delivery guys in non-peak hours (what else can they deliver?). If you go to the movies on a weekday morning, there are 3 people in a theater that sits 200, can’t they rent the space out to someone?

    Next time you walk around town, look for these underutilized assets because there maybe a business opportunity there. And any of the owners will gladly let you utilize the assets because, hey, they might as well.

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    The Intrinsic Value of an Impression

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    In the finance world, there are roughly two ways of calculating the value of an asset; the market approach and the cash flow approach. You can valuate company X by comparing it to a similar company Y, by taking the ratio between the market value and operating profit or EBITDA or other financial measurements. Alternatively, you can come up with the best guess estimate of future cash flow from the company and use a discount rate to calculate the net present value. Now, calculating future cash flows is painful and calculating the discount rate can be even more of a pain the ass, whereas the multiple approach is much quicker because it makes one key assumption: the market value of the comparison asset is correct. The flaw with the market approach is that when the comparison asset is not valuated appropriately you are never going to get your valuation right. When the market is wrong everyone is wrong.

    So being this is (sometimes) a blog about ad tech, why am I talking about this? Because I wanted to pose a question: When you are making your bid for an impression, what are you basing it on? Are we assuming that whatever the market is willing to pay for the impression is the “right” price? Are we bidding the current price plus a penny for an impression we want? You can already guess where I am going with this. What if we are pricing everything wrong? What if everyone is overpaying for those impressions?

    Conceptually the cash flow method is simple. We should be valuating the impression based on how much the impression is expected to bring us in terms of revenue (or profit). Say you have a $100 product you have an ad for and you are willing to spend $10 to get someone to purchase it. If you knew for certain that a person has a 10% chance of buying your product by showing your ad, you should be willing to spend $1 on that impression. Now, as discussed in my older post An Efficient Market for Online Ads there are a few variables at play here:

    • Click Through Rate (CTR)
    • Conversion Rate (CVR)
    • Average Order Value (AOV): the average value of the basket
    • % of Sales I am willing to spend for a conversion

    How much I am willing to spend on an impression can be expressed as: CPM = CTR*CVR*AOV*%Sales. These variables all have different variances meaning some variables are more predictable than others and how confident I am about the variances will affect how much I am willing to pay. The % of sales I am willing to spend is an internal decision that depends on my cost structure, capital structure, and appetite for risk. Given all this, the formula looks like this:image

    The above assumes last click attribution which is being really under fire these days (for good reason). I will share my thoughts on attribution on CPM pricing in another post, but the point here is, you should not assume whatever price the market is bidding for an impression is the price you should be willing to pay. Theoretically there is a “right” price you should be willing to bid for every impression, given the characteristics of the impression and your situation. Whether you act based on the market value or intrinsic value of that impression is up to you.

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    My War Story: Worst Project Ever

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    People in Japan work long hours. Especially those in the IT sector. I spent 6 years working 60-80 hour weeks and was involved in some crazy projects. This is a first hand account on the worst project I have ever seen or heard of.

    I was probably 25 or so and it was the first project I was assigned to as a leader. I was to manage a couple of programmers (who were both in their 40′s, which is completely unrelated, but one of them used to program with punched cards. PUNCHED CARDS!) to develop a data migration tool. Yes, this project required 3 programmers full time about 6 months to develop a tool just for data migration. This was because we were a small part of a $10mm+ ERP project for one of Japan’s biggest companies to be unnamed, and the implementation was led by a public system integrator also to be unnamed. The data migration tool development was complicated but contained. However, the ERP implementation project was just insanely out of control. I got to sit court side for the fireworks.

    The lesson here is, never bite off more than you can chew. The main implementation partner did not have the skills or experience necessary for such a large scale ERP project. What ensued was your classic scope creep story that brought seemingly endless new use cases. With the client being so huge, they were basically customizing SAP to a level that the system was not designed to accommodate, but no one had the balls to say no. There were more than 200 developers coding furiously what seemed like 24/7 and people were getting worn out. Most developers were working 7days and putting in 100+ hours week in and week out and trying to handle an endless string of requirements change. The whole project room had a stench of guys not showering in a week and the atmosphere was literally that of a death march. There was no redemption or silver lining. We were bound to fail and there was nothing anyone can do about it. But for some strange reason, everyone worked their asses off and refused to see the reality that we were doomed.

    For me the most interesting part was seeing how people snapped under this extreme stress. The overall project manager developed ulcers and had to pass stones with his urine, which apparently was excruciatingly painful. But he was better off than some people. I actually saw ambulances come in to the office on two different occasions. Once in an afternoon on a Wednesday where a guy was getting carried off sitting on a stretcher, staring at blank space seemingly lost the will to move. The other one was on a Sunday afternoon. This guy must have not left the office or taken a shower in days. Two paramedics held each of his arms and he had wet his pants and was drooling and screaming incomprehensible words while he got dragged away. This guy was in such a primal state of being that he was barely functioning as a human being.

    More than a year later the project was halted with nothing to show for. The contract guaranteed deliverables, which meant the client didn’t have to pay a penny and the main implementation partner bared all cost. For the 200+ people involved, not a single person was better off (except arguably for my team. We got paid, were relatively unharmed, and I got to see some things you don’t see everyday).

    This was my war story. Anyone else got some interesting war stories? Let’s trade war stories.

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    Horrible Bosses: The Uber Micro Manager

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    I finished up a management training recently, and that got me thinking about my past bosses. I’ve worked for quite a few managers, some good, some bad, and two distinctively horrible. One was your classic horrible boss. He was incompetent, always looking for opportunities to steal other people’s credit, and a general scumbag. The other one was a more rare and interesting case. He was extremely logical to the point of being robotic and his issue was definitely not incompetence. He was the ultimate micro manager and had to control 100% of your effort, down to your thought process. I have to say working for him was the turning point of my career.

    I was 25 years old and had 3 years of experience as an IT consultant at the company. I had moved back to Japan for this job and was getting comfortable with the culture and gaining confidence at work. When I was assigned to the project, my colleagues had warned me about the project manager. In the five years that he had worked there, he had sent numerous young consultants to therapy and a lot of them would never come back. He had a reputation of being too tough but he would get challenging projects done and the company valued that.

    The first three months of the six months project was tough but bearable. It was a three person team and I would get yelled at sometimes but it wasn’t anything I couldn’t tough it out. After three month, the other member of the team had rolled off the project and from there, it was a living hell. There was not a day that went by without getting yelled at. Every powerpoint slide, every excel sheet, every word I mouthed, every output I created was absolute shit. Everything I did was illogical and wrong and everything I had ever done in my life was worthless. If this was just an asshole boss, I could have shrugged it off and bad mouthed him behind his back over beer to feel better. What really sucked about working for him was that he was always logical and every feedback he had was backed with facts. He had notes of my actions and words that he would pull out as evidence and he created an environment that forced me to face the fact that I was wrong, illogical, stubborn, immature, incompetent, and useless.

    A lot of times when he asked me a simple question, something like “what happened to that meeting material?” and it would take me a split second to answer because some thoughts crossed my mind unconsciously. Before I could answer, I was getting yelled at again for the thoughts that he somehow knew was crossing my mind.He would be able to verbalize my thoughts better than I could. “When I asked you this, your initial thought was X and then you thought Y. Those thoughts are inefficient and worthless.”

    After getting tired of giving me the same feedback over and over, he made a list of things he wanted me to be always aware of. Every morning I come into the work, I would spend the first 10 minutes reciting the list to him. It went something like: “I will listen to what you say. I will make sure I write down every instructions given to me. Before I ask for your review I will confirm that the output achieves the objective.” and so on. When I did something wrong during the day, which inevitably happened multiple times every day, I would have to go back to the list and recite again.

    The most intense part of the project was only for three months, but it was the longest and toughest three months ever. I became the first person to go through a two person project with him and not end up in therapy, although I have to say I was pretty damn close. I definitely came out of the project stronger and a lot more humble (that’s what happens when every single non fact based confidence is shattered). Could I ever work with him again? Hell no! However, I do have a weird appreciation for what he had done, I guess it’s similar to Stockholm syndrome or maybe just the result of the brainwashing. After the project I did grow as a consultant and became a lot more disciplined. I also learned how not to manage a team and the importance of treating your team with dignity.

    In my defense, I am a smart and logical professional (I swear!) and even back then I was a competent consultant. I consider this period as boot camp and I needed a little ass kicking because let’s face it, I was a spoiled brat. However, I believe extreme stress is not always the fastest way to grow or succeed. I don’t need to beat him as an individual (and I don’t think I can) but I hope to be a better manager and a more effective leader than him. I look up to him in many ways but at the same time, he is my anti role model as a manager.

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    Next Step for Ad Tech: Product Data Innovation

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    We’ve reached the most granular level in online advertisement targeting technology: an SKU to an impression. So where will the next innovation come from? I’m thinking the next big step in ad tech will be on the product side, helping advertisers pick which SKU to show a particular impression, at a specific bid price.

    An impression is more than just the age and gender of the person. It is the person at the exact time and place. It includes the demographic, psychographic, and geographic information, the taste, mood, and everything about who the person is, adjusted for the context of what she is looking at. We probably can’t combine all those data for a given impression yet, but we’ve made a lot of progress in painting a picture of this person at the exact state in time.

    What about the SKU side? When an impression shows up on a website, how much should an advertiser bid on this impression and more importantly, which product should he show?
    I believe an impression has a fair intrinsic value that is a function of the predicted click through rate, conversion rate, the average order value, and how much % of sales the advertiser is willing to pay, adjusted for risk. In a formula, this looks like this:
    image

    I’ve outlined my thought process in a previous entry, found here.

    My question is, of all the advertisers that are bidding on impressions, how many are looking at the product side on a data driven way? By data driven, I don’t mean “this product is designed for single urban males who like cars”. I mean “analyzing all the transaction history involving this product, the calculated CTR & CVR of this impression is X & Y, with standard deviation of Z”. The point is, advertisers are choosing which product to show without the rigorous past purchase analysis that should point them to the optimal SKU to show at the optimal bidding price. If you sell hundreds or thousands or even millions of SKUs how can you be sure that the ad you decide to serve is the best one in your product portfolio? Also if you are not amazon or Walmart do you have enough data to really make an intelligent decision?

    The next innovation in ad tech will effectively collect these purchase data across merchants and transform it in a way that is useful to advertisers. With information asymmetry out of the way, advertisers will bid on impressions based on predicted CTR, CVR, and AOV. So what will win an impression when multiple merchants are selling identical products? It is the % of sales the advertiser is willing to give up thus ensuring the publisher will get the maximum $ for the impression. The user who will see the ad will see a calculated, optimized ad, which should match his profile so well that the ad will be less of a distraction and more of a content. Of course the advertiser who was willing to pay the most will get to show the ad, so we have a win-win-win situation between the user, publisher, and the advertiser. Moreover the product side innovation should drive automation even further. Ultimately, a user showing up to a website will trigger a process that will sift through millions of products across advertisers to find the optimal one. That sounds like a more efficient market to me.

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    Strategy Means Nothing without Operations

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    ” A vision without action is just a dream; an action without a vision just passes time; a vision with an action changes the world.” ~ Nelson Mandela

    Substitute the word “vision” to “strategy” and “action” to “operations” and that’s your business quote of the day.

    I like to use a bicycle analogy to talk about what strategy and operations are, and how they relate to each other. When you are riding a bike, you are performing two main tasks. Steering and pedaling. Obviously steering is strategy and pedaling is operations. In order to get to your destination quickly, you need both components performing. It is much easier to steer a company that is already pedaling well. When you try to shift the strategy of a wobbly bike, you risk falling flat on your face. Strategy means nothing without the operations to back it up.

    So, what does it mean for a strategy to be backed up by operations? It means your resources are shifted towards the strategy. At the most granular level, it means your sales person is calling prospective client A rather than client B. It means your account manager is creating an additional slide and product manager is adding a few lines to the requirements document. Management is shifting some members from one team to another. In short, strategy is only effective when action takes place.

    In a corporation, the way to ensure these actions happen is by reflecting the strategy into the budget. When you look at a company’s budget there should be a storyline. The numbers next to the line items needs to illustrate how the strategy is to be executed. If you can’t read your strategy in the budget, it’s not going to happen.

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    カルチャーはトップダウンで決まる

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    (当ブログ内の英文記事をざっくりと翻訳して掲載しています。)

    企業のカルチャーはトップダウンで決まります。どれだけ前向きな社員が集まっていたとしてもリーダー層の言動に反してよいカルチャーが根付く企業というのは存在しません。良いカルチャーはメンバー達にとってほしい行動をリーダー層が模範して示す場合にのみ築けます。リーダーが「なぜうちのチームは文句ばかり言うのかが理解できない」と文句を言うのは筋違いそのものです。

    なぜでしょうか?人は基本的には成功したいですし、成功するためには自身の行動をある程度改めることができます。(もちろん例外な人もいますが、そういう人が組織内に入り込まないようにするのは採用の最低ラインです。)どれほどガツガツするかは人によりますが、大体の社員は昇格したいし、昇給もほしいものです。社員は上を見て自分もどのようにしたらよりよいポジションに就けるのか観察し、学びます。上位層が政治的に動き、評価されているのを見ると下位層でも同じような行動がとられ、政治的なカルチャーになります。逆にリーダー層がチームワークや誠意を見せ、評価されているのを見るとメンバー達も同様な行動をとり、良いカルチャーが醸成されます。

    リーダーとして、よいカルチャーを築き上げたいと思うのであれば、末端層の行動を変えてもらう取り組みを考える前に、まずは自分自身と周りのリーダーの行動を見ましょう。組織全体のカルチャーを変えるために行動を変える必要がある人はトップのごく一部なのかもしれません。

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    Personnel Announcements as Communication Vehicle

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    In the past couple of days, I talked about why office politics suck and how corporate culture is set top down. What’s also really interesting is HOW culture is communicated throughout the organization.

    The strongest messages from management to employees are delivered through personnel announcements. Promotions, demotions, disciplines, dismissals, transfers, etc. The message is stronger than any presentation or training because it is REAL.

    We’ve all seen promotions that makes you say WTF? But there is a line of thinking and justification behind every single personnel move, and that is a manifestation of the leaders’ values and a representation of the corporate culture. No one ever gets accidentally promoted. Some may get an undeserved promotion, but even those are intentional.

    A personnel announcement is essentially a list of who’s getting rewarded and who’s not. Team members know their leaders and fellow employees, and they share information amongst themselves. They know WHY each of the personnel changes took place or didn’t take place and this common understanding creates the foundation of culture. So if you want to create a certain culture in your organization, be careful of who you surround yourself with, because no matter what you say in your new employee training, your actions will speak a lot louder.

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    The Guess Why I’m Crying Game

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    I have a two week old daughter. Yes she’s a bundle of joy and is without a doubt the cutest thing ever. She is also a very calm baby compared to others. But raising a baby is like playing a game of “Guess why I’m crying?”.

    Here are the rules of the game for a newborn. I assume these will evolve as the baby grows and learns more curve balls to throw at you.

    • Baby will start crying. This can happen 24/7.
    • You have to guess why she is crying
    • She is either hungry, sleepy, in need of a diaper change, hot, cold, uncomfortable, in pain, gassy, burpy, in need of a hug, in a bad mood, or just messing with you because she can
    • If you get it right and take the proper action you win and she will quiet down unless she decides not to (because she can)
    • You cannot adjust the volume, in fact, she will cry louder as she grows
    • You don’t have an option to not participate in this game

    Of course it’s all worth it. Except when you change her diaper and immediately she decides to poop while sitting on your lap. And then starts crying.

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